Seven things we learned during the holiday event circuit season in Westminster
The past two and a half weeks are some of the busiest in UK politics. Numerous organisations across the political and party spectra hold receptions and events, which tend to provide a handy barometer for how the political ecosystem currently feels. We attended approximately twenty of these events during the Christmas party season, and there are seven things we learned:
The Conservatives’ political and media operators have started to believe, or at least repeat, Labour campaign points i.e., “things are broken,” “the economy is horrible," or “it’s all a bit hopeless, isn’t it"?” This is significant. Once one party acknowledges and follows the positioning of the other, they implicitly hand over control of the narrative. This makes it more difficult for the Conservatives to narrow Labour’s polling lead, but also puts greater pressure on Labour to provide their policy platform ahead of the next election.
Most Conservative operators do not seem to believe in nor overly care about the current debate about illegal immigration – it seems to be very firmly a “No. 10 thing” rather than a “Conservative Party thing,” usually an early indictor that most in the Party except No. 10 to fail and that the blame will be firmly pinned on the PM. With fewer voices from across the party’s operating spectrum singing from the same hymn sheet during events where most media try to source stories in an informal setting, Labour will fill that vacuum and control that space, likely through steers to friendly journalists i.e. pointing out clickbait-friendly, voter-unfriendly tweets or quotes from Conservative Party MPs that would make good headlines for Labour or headaches for the Conservatives.
Many in the Conservative Party suffer low morale, symptomatic of the ideological stalemate within the party and entrenched polling deficit. That gridlock, currently playing out in the press as a debate on illegal migration, looks set to continue into 2024 as both parties continue to draft their respective manifestoes. The Conservative Party must eventually decide between multiple factions’ aims and make compromises in a way that satisfies as many as possible within the party so that the party’s election machinery can swing into full gear during the election campaign. An internal focus now means less attention is being paid to the wider electorate and more to the grassroots membership that will be pivotal in the machinery of any campaign.
Normally very discrete Conservative operators are starting to “accidentally” hint at a Q4 2024 election, but we think this means an earlier election is currently more likely and the briefing acts as an insurance policy. If circumstances change, then the Q4 briefing will look prescient, but if a Q2 election is called, then the Conservatives have the surprise factor. “Accidents” like this mainly serve to sow doubt and provide cover.
Labour, for the most part, is striding with confidence. Many operators at the working level are constantly auditioning for new jobs when around Labour Party grandees, putting forward their own ideas and demonstrating a level of comfort and familiarity with the media to show they can disseminate and sell their ideas.
Several of the think tanks in Labour’s policy ecosystem, specifically Labour Together (LT) and the Tony Blair Institute (TBI), have made large strides in the mechanics of Westminster, mainly through numerous strategic hires. Although the civil war currently playing out in the TBI between the political side (influence) and advisory side (money) has not affected the TBI’s standing in Westminster, it does indicate the tension, which could attract attention in 2024. Both think tanks have become well-known acronyms (LT and TBI, respectively), a good indicator for notoriety and Westminster networks. The LT Christmas Party (good venue, food, drinks, and fun) was a stark departure from previous Labour Party gatherings. Most politicos expect at least half of either think tank to join the Labour Party once the election campaign is formally announced - few within disagree.
Several media outlets, specifically the Spectator, Politico, the Sun, and the Mail, have made in-roads into the Labour community in a big way, with several journalists and editors months, if not years, ahead of their competitors. That level of trust will come in handy for Labour operators as they attempt to either brief out the party’s messaging or settle any intra-party squabbling.