Tory Manifesto Underwhelms
Voters likely to be indifferent to Sunak promises
On 11 June, the Conservatives launched their general election manifesto. This is the first time the Conservatives have launched their manifesto before Labour in nearly twenty years i.e. when Tony Blair won his last election, and underlines how increasingly anxious they have become about the scale of their predicted loss. Our summary view is below.
Our view:
The Conservatives’ election manifesto is unlikely to make a material difference to their electoral chances and should be thought of as a damage mitigation exercise. The reaction from the media and several Conservative MP and special advisor contacts has been mixed, while Labour contacts have taken it as a win.
The PM used the manifesto launch to continue his campaign of "it's better the devil you know" and "Starmer will raise your taxes by £2,000," ahead of Labour's manifesto launch tomorrow, but for many, it does not seem like PM Sunak’s heart is in this fight. Most media present at the launch focused their questions on whether some of the Conservatives' manifesto policy proposals i.e. reinvigoration of its Rwanda deportation scheme or abolition of national insurance for the self-employed, are even credible. This added to Sunak's visible frustration during the launch, and will likely hurt the already low morale within the Conservative Party and their ability to turn polling momentum back in their favour ahead of polling day.
The Conservatives’ manifesto is also unlikely to have a material effect on Labour’s manifesto commitments, which were agreed on Friday of last week and will be published tomorrow. The Conservatives’ manifesto is 80 pages long and contains a long list of policy commitments, but few major surprises. The aim of this strategy is to undermine Labour’s manifesto when it is released because Labour’s will likely be much shorter with fewer details. A longer, more detailed manifesto allows Sunak and the Conservatives to compare the two and say that “Labour does not have a plan.” We do not think this will work because most people do not think Sunak or his proposals are credible, nor are there big differences between the Conservatives' manifesto and their current policy agenda, limiting the manifesto’s cut through and credibility with the media and electorate.
We also spent some of the weekend with political reporters and editors of several newspapers, along with several Conservative MP candidates and special advisors, and most had an aligned view that the PM’s team has more or less given up on the election and that the biggest obstacle to the campaign is the PM himself, who struggles to move on to a more aggressive, soundbite-oriented footing and focuses instead on policy proposals that no one thinks are credible. The PM’s only bright spot came during last week’s leadership debates where he seized the initiative against Starmer, but this was quickly drowned out by his decision to leave last week’s D-Day celebrations in France early.