The Conservative Party veers right
In a surprise result, the Conservatives have chosen former Business and Trade Secretary, Kemi Badenoch MP, and former Immigration Minister, Robert Jenrick MP, as their final two candidates to succeed Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative Party. The frontrunner was former Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly MP. Conservative Party members will now vote for their preferred candidate. The result is expected to be announced on 2 November.
Our view:
The Conservatives remain a non-functioning opposition party, to the benefit of Labour.
Absent consistent scrutiny and resistance, Chancellor Reeves will find it easier to raise taxes, increase borrowing and spending, and tighten regulations at the 30 October Budget
The Conservatives will continue to struggle to find their post-election identity. Both candidates are pro-Brexit (although Jenrick campaigned for Remain), anti-immigration, and anti-woke, all traits shared with Reform, but which rank lower on voter key priorities.
Badenoch and Jenrick will campaign on pensioners’ priorities ahead of 2 November (Conservative Party membership is mainly composed of pensioners). Compared to the median voter, pensioners tend to be much more concerned about immigration, share similar levels of concerns about the NHS, and care less about tax rates and rises.
Our wider view:
The Conservatives will be more right-wing than before the election. Although much of the Conservatives’ electoral loss has been attributed to splitting its vote with right-wing party, Reform, many Reform voters have been resolute in their opposition to voting for the Conservatives at the next election. Both Badenoch and Jenrick will double down on their attempts to win back Reform voters. Given how few voters Labour lost to either the Conservatives or Reform, though, the Conservatives’ tactic will only succeed if Reform look like a less credible party at the next election. At present, this does not look likely.
The Conservative leadership contest has been a boon to Labour. Now that the Conservatives have settled on two right-wing candidates, the scope of political debate in their party is likely to narrow to relatively few topics over the next three weeks, mainly of interest to pensioners, who make up the majority of the Conservatives' party membership and who vote on the next leader. That will allow Labour to continue its campaign to convince the electorate and media that tax rises, higher borrowing, and increased spending are necessary at the 30 October Budget in order to “clean up the Conservatives’ mess.” PM Starmer indicated employers’ National Insurance contributions are likely to increase earlier today during Prime Minister’s Questions.
Labour will (finally) face opposition, beginning in November. Once the Conservatives have a leader, they will swiftly rally behind the winner. After nearly a decade of continuous leadership challenges and changes, but with many of the most rebellious Conservative MP ringleaders losing their seat in July, the Conservatives will likely stick to their leader for at least a year. With the number of Conservative MPs at a historic low, many will treat their time in opposition as a way to build their political brand and profile to transition into government, if they win the next election. Those two platforms of stability will enable much more effective opposition to and scrutiny of Labour’s policy decisions. Labour’s time of unopposed governance is quickly coming to an end, so this week’s decision to replace Sue Gray with Morgan McSweeney seems forward-looking, if a bit late.