Why Lee Anderson's defection matters
You will have likely seen the news that Lee Anderson MP has defected from the Conservative Party to Reform UK. We believe this is a significant moment as the UK gears up for an election this year. Our broad views are below:
It benefits the Labour Party:
Reform UK, formerly the Brexit Party, is currently third in general election polls. Reform supporters tend to vote Conservative, so any increased support for Reform will likely hurt the Conservatives, especially in strategic areas like the Red Wall. Losing the Red Wall contributed to Labour's historic loss in 2019, so they need those seats back.
The Conservative Party is running out of time and champions to win back Reform voters:
After nearly a year and a half of social- and culture-oriented campaigning with little to show for it in the polls, and heavy signalling last week that the election will be in autumn 2024, the Conservatives will at some point in the next few weeks/months have to turn their fire on Labour, limiting their attempts to undermine Reform's polling strength
Reform looks increasingly legitimate:
With its first ever MP in Parliament, Reform will have crossed a big election campaign hurdle, making their campaign much, much easier to fund and run. Anderson's show on GB News will also help to amplify Reform's eventual policy platform in Westminster and in the media, as well as provide profile to its more media-friendly candidates
Labour may have another faction to deal with if it wins:
If Reform ends up splitting the Conservatives' targeted vote share in contested seats, Labour could end up with a significant, influential faction of MPs from more socially conservative seats, potentially at junior ministerial level given how (relatively) few MPs Labour currently have. Starmer may end up having to deal with SCG on the one side and a new caucus on the other as Labour tries to govern for the first time in 13/14 years.
What next:
If Anderson’s defection provides confidence to Reform’s supporters that a vote for the party will not be “wasted”, then the Conservatives may end up seeing many of their targeted seats’ votes split, opening up more wins for Labour.
Instead of fighting on one front i.e. against Labour, the Conservatives will have to fight on two and appeal to voting bases that tend to have very different preferences.
After ~60 of their MPs have announced they plan to stand down and some donors have shied away, the Conservatives will be forced to spread fewer resources over larger campaign territory, making their campaign more difficult, to the benefit of Labour.
If other frustrated Conservative MPs opt to defect to Reform, expect these trends to accelerate and entrench.