Election Week 1
Labour still likely win
Following the first full week of the general election campaign, our views are below. We will be sending this as a weekly product until the next Cabinet is appointed.
Our view:
After the first full week of general election campaigning, polls remain heavily skewed in Labour’s favour. The Conservatives have continued their strategy of damage mitigation by appealing to Reform supporters and pensioners while attempting to bait Labour into publishing their election manifesto so they can attack it. Labour has done a good job of maintaining overall campaign message discipline, but has lost control of the narrative surrounding whether newly reinstated Labour MP Diane Abbott will be able to run as an MP in one of Labour’s safest seats. Next week will see more polls published that will incorporate this week’s campaigning and should show which side has been more successful.
Our broader views:
The Conservatives have successfully achieved their two main goals this week:
The PM looks energetic
Following a less than stellar election announcement where PM Sunak was drenched by rain and drowned out by protestors, this week the PM has issued a steady stream of policy announcements and initiatives, seizing the momentum but with limited polling results to show for it (yet). Every day, sometimes twice a day, the PM has announced a new policy initiative, almost solely to bait Labour into releasing their election manifesto. With a consistent twenty-point polling lead, Labour is unlikely to take this bait and will likely release its manifesto at the last possible moment to avoid any risk of negative consequences, even as the Conservatives consistently shout that “Labour does not have a plan.”
If Labour’s polling lead begins to shorten, pressure will increase on it to release its manifesto, but so far, its lead is holding firm. The manifesto will likely also be relatively sparse, giving Labour less opportunity to squander its polling lead
Conservative candidates are likely letting PM Sunak take centre stage during this campaign so that if Conservative losses are as dramatic as polls indicate, Sunak’s departure would be immediate, while also not inhibiting any leadership hopefuls and their allies’ future political ambitions.
The PM has focused on issues that Reform supporters care about to limit Conservatives’ losses
Policies such as the introduction of mandatory national military service for 18 year olds and a pension quadruple lock for the elderly have achieved surprisingly strong cut through amongst the electorate, amplified by paper-based media, where the former policy took most by surprise and is viewed as out of fashion or unworkable, and digital-based media, where it is excessively open to satire, the main language on platforms like TikTok and Instagram, whose millions of users disproportionately skew younger and Labour-supporting. In any case, both policies have got solid cut through amongst the audiences the Conservatives are speaking to. Polls are unlikely to radically shift as a result, however.
Labour achieved one of its two main goals this week:
They have made no major mistakes that could detract from their 20 point polling lead
Labour is unlikely to be able to govern without raising taxes and spending, but it is very unlikely to acknowledge this ahead of the election. Pre-election intentions are non-binding, so should be viewed as a “direction of travel.” Labour have so far chosen to not dramatically diverge from the Conservatives’ fiscal policy, except to say they will do things “better.” Although this is beginning to change as the Conservatives announce policies like National Service for 18-year-olds, Labour has been consistent about which taxes it does not intend to raise, but less clear about how it will make any changes to the UK’s current fiscal and regulatory position. In theory, Labour’s manifesto should make this clearer, but again, there is no reason for Labour to provide a more detailed policy platform ahead of the 4 July polling day when it is this far ahead in the polls.
Starmer has lost control of the narrative surrounding Diane Abbott’s ability to stand in the election.
Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC), one of the party’s ruling bodies with a Starmerite majority, is expected to rule on Abbott’s ability to stand next week. While Starmer would have ideally liked to install a younger candidate in Abbott’s very safe seat (Abbott is one of Labour’s longest serving MPs) as a way of cementing his more moderate policy stance in the Labour party, as well as finishing his purge of leftwing MPs and members ahead of likely winning power, he has not been able to move the media narrative on to a more friendly topic. That misstep could end up having long-term implications if the NEC rule that Abbott can stand.
What to look for next:
Whether the polls begin to narrow
Anything above a two percent bump for the Conservatives or a two percent drop for Reform will cause anxiety in the Labour campaign apparatus.
Whether the NEC allows Diane Abbott to run for re-election.
The NEC is more likely to rule against Abbott if Labour’s polling lead remains strong. The decision must come by Friday 7 June.
How Conservative leadership candidates campaign, specifically Kemi Badenoch, Penny Mordaunt, and Suella Braverman.
Candidates for next Conservative leader are already looking through this election to the post-Sunak era, rallying allies to support them as likely Leader of the Opposition
Whether Boris Johnson joins the Conservatives’ campaign.
Although he has given no indication that he plans to, Westminster’s toxic ex could be useful for the Conservatives’ consistently poor polling numbers, especially amongst Reform supporters and 2019 Conservative voters in the Red Wall.