PM Sunak Has Called An Election
PM Sunak has called an election for 4 July. Our initial views are below.
Our view:
PM Sunak has called an election. Labour is likely to win, but the size, strength, and composition of their majority will have a material impact on their ability to legislate and govern. Labour has become increasingly and consistently professional over the past several years, following the end of the Corbyn era, but many advisors and shadow ministers have no experience in government. The risks for mistakes and reversals during the election campaign and early on in power are larger than normal.
The election campaign will likely be a choice between the Conservatives’ “we have a plan and you should be scared of Labour” and Labour’s “the Conservatives have broken Britain and you can trust us to fix it.” As polls narrow, a key metric to watch will be voting intentions for the Reform Party. After a month of falling support, the Conservatives likely called this election before Reform has a chance to meaningfully prepare for it. Many of Reform’s Prospective Parliamentary Candidates (PPCs) do not even have biographical information on their campaign pages, so the local infrastructure is unlikely to be established. With Reform in a state of unpreparedness, PM Sunak likely chose this moment as the Conservatives’ best chance to reabsorb falling support for an unprepared Reform while attacking Labour and leaving them to balance their messaging while fending off the better-prepared Liberal Democrats on their other flank.
Our broader views:
Parliament enters “washing up” and civil service enters “purdah”
Speaking outside No 10 earlier today, PM Sunak ended speculation about a summer election, setting the polling day for 4 July. Parliament will be prorogued on Friday 24 May and officially dissolved on 30 May. During this time, Parliament will enter what is called “washing up” period, meaning any outstanding pieces of legislation will only become law if the Government is able to successfully negotiate with its backbenchers, the House of Lords, Labour Party, and other opposition parties to successfully pass the legislation by Thursday 30 May. Legislation that has a “carryover” motion, is near to Royal Assent, or enjoys cross-party support is more likely to pass in the next week. Any unfinished business will be lost at dissolution. The civil service will enter “purdah” meaning most engagement with business will be minimal.
Labour is currently expected to win the election. We still do not know what they intend to do
Labour have not published an election manifesto yet, but last week Keir Starmer recommitted to Labour’s six pledges:
Tough spending rules in order to deliver economic stability
Setup Great British Energy, a publicly owned clean power energy company
Cut NHS waiting lists by providing 40,000 more appointments each week
Stop the gangs arranging small boat crossings
Provide more neighbourhood police officers and introduce new penalties
Recruit 6,500 teachers
Most of these proposals are likely to end up in their election manifesto, but Labour has been consistently vague about how, specifically, it intends to govern. If the polls narrow, as many expect, that reticence will have to end, especially once at least one party publishes its manifesto. The Conservatives will likely try to elicit more policy detail from Labour as soon as possible, so that it can run a fear-based, attack-orientated campaign. PM Sunak’s initial election announcement almost immediately segued into an attack on Labour “not having a plan,” for example. We expect to hear that message consistently until Labour publishes its election manifesto.
If Labour do come to power, there are clear unknowns that will inform what actions it can take and in what time. To achieve a one-seat majority, Labour needs to win an additional 121 seats. Although Labour is currently around 20 points ahead in the polls, this lead is likely to narrow, especially if Reform UK’s polling numbers continue to fall (below). One of the Conservatives’ key concerns has been splitting their vote with Reform as a way of inadvertently ushering in a larger Labour majority than there otherwise would be. Reform’s support has fallen consistently for the past month and that trend is likely one of the key reasons why PM Sunak called the election, alongside lower inflation and positive headline economic growth.
The Conservatives are likely gambling on better economic growth, electoral fear of the “Labour unknown,” and an unprepared Reform party to mitigate their losses
Few Conservative MPs or advisors currently expect to win the election. The party’s focus is damage mitigation, both in terms of seats lost and stymying the ability for an incoming Labour government to govern effectively. The Conservatives will likely attack Labour's spending and regulatory ambitions across sectors during the next seven weeks, which could dent public opinion and hurt Labour’s political momentum and ability to legislate if they come to power. Some pollsters are predicting a near halving of Labour’s current polling lead, as is usual during a general election campaign as messaging becomes clearer and more effective and voters begin to tune in. There are few areas of Conservative strength, so their focus will be more on areas of Labour weakness, such as tax and spend, security, and immigration policy.
Keir Starmer has managed to enforce party discipline quite effectively, but a key test will be when Labour’s election manifesto is published and some Labour MPs, PPCs, advisors, and trade union officials feel like they have “lost” the debate. Any internal dissent will be pounced on and amplified by the Conservatives. Most Labour MPs, advisors, PPCs, trade union officials, and party members, however, are rigidly-focused on winning the election, so any dissent will likely be limited and minor.